ExogenousAI
Quantitative framework for modeling AI capability timelines under exogenous policy and market shocks. 🏅 4th Place – Apart Research AI Forecasting Hackathon
4th Place – Apart Research AI Forecasting Hackathon (Nov 2025)
- Developed quantitative framework for modeling AI capability timelines under exogenous policy and market shocks using MacKinlay-style event study methodology.
- Implemented Monte Carlo simulations with Geometric Brownian Motion incorporating policy drift terms and volatility decomposition for probabilistic AGI timeline stress testing.